IMD Predicts Above-Average Monsoon for 2025, Boosting Hopes for Agriculture and Economy

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast an above-average monsoon for the 2025 season, bringing a wave of optimism across the country, particularly among farmers and policy-makers. The announcement comes at a crucial time as India continues to grapple with the economic impacts of erratic weather patterns and growing concerns over food inflation.

What the Forecast Says

According to IMD’s long-range forecast released this April, the southwest monsoon rainfall is expected to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which is classified as above normal. The LPA for the country, based on rainfall data from 1971 to 2020, stands at 87 cm for the June–September period.

The positive outlook is attributed to the weakening of the El Niño weather pattern and the likelihood of a La Niña developing in the Pacific Ocean during the monsoon months. El Niño years are typically associated with weaker monsoons in India, while La Niña tends to support robust rainfall.

Agricultural and Economic Significance

Nearly 50% of India’s farmland is rainfed, and more than 60% of India’s population relies directly or indirectly on agriculture for livelihood. A healthy monsoon season means better sowing prospects, improved crop yields, and more stable food prices. Key kharif crops such as rice, pulses, oilseeds, and cotton depend heavily on the June-to-September rainfall window.

An above-normal monsoon could also provide relief from high food inflation and support rural demand, which in turn has broader implications for India’s overall GDP growth. Additionally, a good monsoon eases pressure on irrigation systems, reduces reliance on groundwater, and helps recharge reservoirs, essential for both agriculture and drinking water supply.

Regional Outlook and Precautions

While the national average is projected to be higher than normal, the IMD emphasized the importance of regional variability. Some regions may receive excess rainfall while others may still see deficits. The department plans to issue more detailed, state-wise rainfall projections in May to help farmers plan accordingly.

Disaster management authorities have also been advised to prepare for the possibility of localized flooding and landslides in certain areas, particularly in the northeastern states and the Western Ghats.

The 2025 monsoon forecast has come as a positive development amid growing concerns over climate unpredictability. If the rains arrive on time and are well-distributed, they could significantly bolster India’s agricultural output, stabilize rural incomes, and stimulate economic activity in the months ahead.